Australia's economy grew by 2.3 per cent in the 2025–26 financial year, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Output per person rose by only 0.8 per cent, which the figures attribute to population growth. Households saved a larger share of their income, with the saving ratio rising to 6.1 per cent from 5.5 per cent. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.0 per cent in the year to August 2026, and unemployment reached 4.7 per cent in September.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that officials are downgrading economic forecasts ahead of the December mid-year budget update, pointing to slower growth and higher unemployment. Oil prices have climbed to US$113 a barrel after a broadening Middle East conflict, and petrol has risen by 60 cents a litre since the US and Israel attacked Iran. Westpac analysts have outlined a scenario in which oil could reach US$150. Chalmers has said the government has limited control over these pressures, and that any response to one problem could make another worse.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment. Speaking at a Sydney business forum, he said higher interest rates and inflation were likely to soften growth and push unemployment slightly higher. He linked the pressure to the wars in Ukraine and Iran, which he said were raising global inflation and borrowing costs. Chalmers said private sector activity was now driving growth, while public demand had eased. Financial markets currently put a 62 per cent chance on a rate rise on Melbourne Cup day in November.
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that the December midyear budget update will forecast weaker growth and higher unemployment. Economists warn of a difficult six months ahead. Unemployment reached 4.7% in September, its highest in nearly five years. Chalmers says higher interest rates and inflation are likely to soften growth. Economists also expect the full effect of four rate rises to still be felt, with a further rise possible.
Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser has warned of a worsening inflation outlook and left open the possibility of another interest rate hike in November. He said the bank faces hard choices, weighing higher inflation against a weaker labour market. Hauser said some businesses now regard inflation of around 3.5% as the new normal, which he called a central banker's nightmare. Third-quarter inflation data, due on October 28, is expected to play a decisive role in the decision. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a November rate hike, up from below 20% last week.
Charter Hall managing director David Harrison has warned that Australia risks sliding into recession, with rising unemployment and stubborn inflation threatening a painful downturn. Speaking at the Property Council of Australia's Property Congress in Brisbane, he blamed years of heavy government spending and rising debt for leaving the economy vulnerable. He said the Reserve Bank faces a difficult balancing act and warned that interest rates held too high for too long could cause a hard landing. Harrison suggested unemployment could rise above five per cent.
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says the board faces hard choices over whether to raise interest rates further. He spoke at a Citi bank conference in Sydney and said a November rate rise remains possible. Hauser said inflation expectations were becoming embedded as Middle East supply shocks continued, which he called a central banker's nightmare. Traders have raised their expectations of a November hike after softer jobs figures. Inflation data for the September quarter, due on October 28, will be pivotal to the decision.
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says the inflation outlook is materially worse than the RBA had forecast. He warned that high inflation is becoming entrenched and that some businesses now see 3 to 3.5 per cent as the new normal. Inflation currently sits at 4 per cent, above the RBA's 2 to 3 per cent target. Market pricing gives a 51 per cent chance of a rate hike at the November 3 meeting. Mr Hauser said the labour market needed to soften, while the unemployment rate reached 4.7 per cent in September.
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser has hinted at further interest rate rises, saying the bank faces hard choices. Speaking at the Citi Investment Conference 2026, he said inflation is running higher than the bank expected in August, with headline inflation at 4.0 per cent. Hauser said the bank must weigh tackling inflation against a weakening jobs market, where unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent. He also said renters and low-income households feel the pain of higher inflation most, and that the bank cannot stand in the way of rising oil prices.
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce are touring Tasmania this week, meeting businesses and industries that One Nation says are struggling under state and federal policy. Hanson said Christmas should be celebrated in schools, and said those offended by a Trevallyn Primary School Christmas event were in the wrong country. Joyce said government policies were hurting industry and that rescue packages would not be needed if policies were changed. Hanson said the Bell Bay smelter, which recently received a federal bailout, was necessary. Tasmania's trend unemployment rate was 5.2% in September, the highest in the nation.
Unemployment has reached 4.7 per cent, its highest rate in nearly five years, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Employment fell by 39,300 jobs in September, against economists' expectation of a 20,000 rise. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the labour market remains resilient, while Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson blamed the government's economic approach. Youth unemployment is now 11.1 per cent, according to Deputy Opposition Leader Jane Hume.
A new Australian job listing site aimed at young people, Knack, says no job hunters will be ghosted. Founder Gemma Lloyd says applicants will be told when their application has been viewed, shortlisted and whether they have reached an interview. The platform checks in with each young person fortnightly and offers practical tips if they miss out. The launch comes as youth unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points to 11.1 per cent in September, more than double the general rate of 4.7 per cent.
Unemployment rose to a five-year high of 4.7 per cent in September, above economist predictions of 4.6 per cent. Employment fell by almost 40,000, which was softer than expected. The data has raised the prospect that the Reserve Bank will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting on Melbourne Cup day. Bank officials are due to speak in coming days, and their comments will be watched closely. Last month the central bank lifted the official cash rate to 4.6 per cent, the highest level in 15 years.
A new analysis by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia says the country's economic misery index has returned to post-pandemic highs. Higher prices and interest rates are now the main drivers, rather than unemployment. Headline inflation rose to 4 per cent in the 12 months to August, and interest rates are at their highest level in 15 years. Unemployment then rose to 4.7 per cent in September, with 39,300 jobs lost. CEDA's Liam Dillon said productivity growth is the key lever to ease all three pressures.
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock received total remuneration of $1.22 million in 2025-26, according to the bank's annual report. Junior staff are seeking an 11 per cent pay rise over three years and protection against inflation outpacing wages. Bullock has asked staff to vote for a 9.5 per cent offer, which a majority rejected in July. Bullock says productivity growth is needed for real wage rises. Unemployment has risen to 4.7 per cent since interest rates began lifting in February.
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Shadow Treasurer Dean Winter says Tasmania is now in the midst of its most severe job losses since the global financial crisis. The statement also says the state has the highest unemployment in the nation.
Australians are feeling economic misery at post-pandemic levels, according to new analysis from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia. The Misery Index, which combines interest rates, inflation and unemployment, points to rate hikes and sticky inflation as the main causes in 2026. Economist Daniel Beadle said higher prices and interest rates now drive the spike, while the labour market has been a source of strength. The Reserve Bank raised rates for the fourth time this year in September, and some banks expect a fifth rise. Consumer confidence has also fallen sharply.
