Get the appNew Zealanders have begun voting ahead of polling day on November 7. Prime Minister Chris Luxon is seeking a second term for his coalition of National, ACT and NZ First. Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, is trying to regain government. Recent polls show the right bloc narrowly ahead of the left bloc. The new Opportunity party could be decisive if it wins five per cent of the vote to enter parliament.
New Zealand's upcoming general election is on a knife edge, and overseas voters could help decide the result. About 126,000 New Zealanders living abroad are registered to vote, with nearly two-thirds based in Australia. Political scientist Tom Jamieson said a swing of one or two per cent could decide the outcome, and that the Opportunity Party could act as a kingmaker if it wins over 5 per cent of the party vote. Expats such as Mary-Leigh Scheerhoorn, Ron Deane and Jethro George say the cost of living, housing and the Treaty of Waitangi weigh on their decisions.
The Opportunity Party could decide who governs New Zealand if it wins enough seats to hold the balance of power. National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with the party, while opinion polls suggest he may need its votes to form a government. Analysis says the stance may encourage centre-right voters to back National. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong says she is open to talks with National after the election. A confidence-and-supply arrangement with the party is one possible outcome.
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Get the appThe right bloc in New Zealand may win a majority without the Opportunity Party, according to the latest 1News Verian poll, two and a half weeks before the election. The poll gave National 32 per cent of the party vote, Labour 27 per cent and the Greens 16 per cent. Opportunity stood at 7 per cent. Other recent polls from Curia, Anacta and Freshwater also show the right leading, though by varying margins. Opportunity sat close to the 5 per cent threshold in those surveys, which would determine whether the right secures a majority.
National has moved ahead of Labour in a TVNZ-Verian poll, with 32 per cent to 27, as New Zealanders begin voting. Prime Minister Chris Luxon credits a renewed focus on law and order for the gain. The shift followed a visit by Greens and Maori Party MPs to a south Auckland gang meeting, which National used to argue the left was soft on crime. Labour leader Chris Hipkins criticised the visit as an error of judgment. A second poll gave Labour a narrow lead, and neither the left nor right bloc appears able to reach a majority.
Treaty of Waitangi policy has been a central issue for New Zealand's coalition government over the past three years. Its moves include removing references to te Tiriti from legislation and abolishing the Māori Health Authority. Opposition parties argue that culture and colonial context are relevant to policy for Māori. ACT and New Zealand First want to abolish the Waitangi Tribunal once historical settlements are complete, while the Greens and Te Pāti Māori want its decisions made binding. Labour would keep the tribunal but not restore the Māori Health Authority.
New Zealand's two major parties, National and Labour, are both polling at 28 per cent, their lowest combined level since the 1930s. Prime minister Chris Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins both underwhelmed in a leaders debate hosted by the NZ Herald. Panellists declared the debate a tight draw, while National claimed victory based on a reader poll. Luxon drew criticism after wrongly claiming he had raised the minimum wage by inflation each year. Newcomer Qiulae Wong's Opportunity party may hold the balance of power after the November 7 election.
Opportunity, a new centrist party led by Qiulae Wong, is polling about six per cent and could win seats at New Zealand's November 7 election. Its MPs could decide which major bloc governs, as it is open to working with either National or Labour. Prime Minister Chris Luxon has warned supporters against backing the party, saying he could not govern with it. Under the mixed-member proportional system, smaller parties such as Opportunity have an easier route into parliament. Commentators say the minor parties are benefiting from voter frustration with the major parties.