The United Nations Environmental Programme has acknowledged that the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is no longer viable. Its new focus is on limiting how long temperatures stay above that level and how far they rise. The agency says this will require sharp emissions cuts and the removal of hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the end of the century. It says current climate pledges fall well short, and that coal use, oil and gas must fall much faster than projected.
Global warming is on track to reach 2.8C by the end of the century, the United Nations has warned. A report released on Wednesday found projections had worsened since the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement. Researchers say world leaders could limit risks by cutting emissions by almost six per cent a year and sharply reducing coal, oil and gas use. Leaders will meet in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31 to discuss future climate targets.
The world needs to cut carbon emissions by nearly a fifth within four years, and by almost half within a decade, to limit overshooting climate targets, the UN Environment Programme says. The programme says the window to hold temperature rises to 1.5C has closed, but limiting the overshoot remains possible. Global emissions in 2025 were broadly similar to the previous year, though analysts stopped short of calling this a peak. The executive director, Inger Andersen, said governments had delayed action and urged countries to keep the 1.5C goal.
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A group of climate scientists has released a new tool that estimates the possible effects of fossil fuel emissions on people and the environment. The Carbon Impacts Tracer uses peer-reviewed studies to measure the impact of every megatonne of emissions. It shows how emissions from a coalmine expansion in Australia's Hunter Valley could affect food security and human exposure to heat stress globally. Further projected impacts from 809 million tonnes of emissions include an estimated 107 deaths in Europe and 41,800 more people in extreme poverty.
A UN Environment Programme report released on Thursday found more oil and gas producers are now measuring methane, a potent greenhouse gas behind roughly a third of global warming. Companies from 90 countries took part, yet more than half of worldwide gas and oil output sits outside the reporting scheme. Australian producers were widely represented, though many had not yet adopted the programme's strictest standard, with only 21 per cent meeting it. Woodside was cited for finding three turbines responsible for 70 per cent of emissions at one facility.
A new report finds seven of 16 planetary vital signs are at record extremes, including atmospheric carbon dioxide and ice sheet shrinkage. Global warming has accelerated, with El Niño potentially pushing temperatures higher. Coral reefs and tropical forests, especially the Amazon, face severe threats from climate change and deforestation. While renewable energy is growing, greenhouse gas emissions remain at record highs, indicating ongoing climate deterioration.
The Pacific Ocean could experience the effects of global warming for centuries after the world reaches net-zero emissions, according to a study by University of Melbourne researchers. The modelling found the ocean retains a long memory of past emissions because the deep ocean takes hundreds or thousands of years to release heat. Global warming could also cause a lasting shift towards El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific. The researchers said cutting emissions sooner could limit these changes. The findings come weeks before ocean-related climate threats are expected to feature at the COP31 talks in Antalya, Turkey.
A powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, and forecasters say it could reach record strength this winter. Scientists are still studying how climate change interacts with the event, though evidence suggests warming may be strengthening El Niño cycles. Researchers including Christopher Callahan and Francisco Estrada say the combined effects could produce unusual weather and serious risks for societies and reefs. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects peak warming well above the 1982-1983 record. California has declared a state emergency, and the UN has called for urgent adaptation.
Climate change is worsening, with no chance of holding temperature rise to 1.5°C. The future will bring worsening floods, glacial melt, megafires and lethal heat. The phrase 'new normal' is misleading, as global emissions have not peaked and further heat and climate uncertainty are expected. Historically rare weather extremes will become more likely and intense, making adaptation necessary alongside emission reduction efforts.
Environment writers have addressed reader questions about El Niño, including its potential impact on food prices and weather patterns. The World Food Programme warns 274 million people in 45 countries may face food insecurity by the end of next year due to agricultural disruptions. Scientists note accelerating climate change effects, with ocean heat content doubling in the past two decades. The UK Met Office predicts wetter, stormier conditions for the UK this winter, though not guaranteeing extreme weather.
