Latest RBA clues leave door open for pre-Christmas rate hike

Key points

• Minutes from the Reserve Bank's September meeting show a fifth rate hike in 2026 is still under consideration. The board raised the cash rate to 4.6% last month, citing the Middle East war, AI-driven demand and supply imbalances.
• Higher energy prices and rising AI component costs are adding pressure on inflation. Housing prices have fallen and new lending has dropped, while scheduled mortgage payments sit near their 2024 peak.
• The next rates decision is due on 3 November, with markets pricing in a 27% chance of a hike.